The read: Tank-folds turn/river to all-in pressure with medium-strength holdings — folded to clock after a 5-7 min tank with what was clearly a hand Hand 6; folded turn 10+ min to a jam on 993r-6 Hand 20; folded turn 5400 with 8k back on 642ss in 3-bet pot Hand 26; folded river to a $13.6k jam on Qd8d3h-6-Ad after betting $4975 turn Hand 27. When he barrels then faces a raise/jam, he folds 4/4 (100%).
Exploitability · 7/10 · Pool tag REG
Competent winner who opens wide, leads/raises flops liberally, but his stack-off threshold is the nuts; everything in between gets surrendered to a jam. User notes confirm: "min 3bets, leads a ton, does it with all sorts of bs" Hand 22.
Quick reference · glance between sessions
- If he barrels turn and you have any equity → jam, folds 4/4 (100%)High
- If he tanks 5+ min facing a bet → he's folding, call clockHigh
- If he flop check-raises or raises your cbet → he has it, fold non-nutHigh
- If he donk-leads small from straddle → wide/weak range, float IPMed
- If he calls flop + jams turn unprompted → nuts or near, fold one pairMed
Game breakdown
PLO (67 hands): wide opener, frequent straddle defender, flop-raise heavy, but folds turn to pressure. NLHE (1 hand, #51): insufficient sample — same flop-raise pattern shown but cannot generalize.
Bet sizing tells
- Pot-sized turn after flop x/c ($4975 H27, $2425 H12, $1600 H50) — strong made hand or huge draw; folds these to a jam if not nutMed
- Small flop cbets ($100-300 in $400+ pots, H7, H24, H49) — wide/probing, cheap continuationMed
- Flop check-raises always to ~3x, always credible — H12, H32, H50, H65, H66 all premiumHigh
- Preflop min-3bets and 4bets noted "all sorts of bs" — wideMed
Street-by-street aggression map
Preflop: opens wide, defends straddle ~6/7. Min-3bets per user note. Cold 4bets twice Hand 60 Hand 61.
Flop: raises/check-raises cbets at high rate — 6 of 15 (40%) faced cbet spots. High
Turn: barrels when ahead but folds to a jam 4/4 (100%) — H6, H20, H26, H27. High
River: jams only with nuts/near — H21 nut flush, H42 trips, H43 quads; check-calls medium (H11). Med
Shutdown street: TURN vs a raise. This is the attack point.
Range reconstruction · what he showed down
Flop-raise/jam holdings shown: A753hh nut flush draw H17, 8432cc flopped two pair H37, QJ98 turned gutshot H64, JJTT overpair+nut flush draw H65, KKK H43, 99xx set H67.
Conspicuously absent: clean bluff-jams. Every big jam shown had real equity.
Response to aggression
Faced river jam after his turn barrel: fold 4/4 (100%) — H6, H20, H26, H27. Faced flop raise: continues only with sets+/nut draws. Faced 3bet preflop: folded H62 to a 4bet. He does NOT hero-call rivers — H11 check-called $3300 because price/board only.
Timing tells
Long tanks (5-10 min) on turn = folding — H6 (folded), H20 (folded). High
Snap-folds when he has nothing (H16). User note: "call clock whenever someone is in tank vs him" H6.
How to exploit
- Jam turns when he barrels and you have any equity/blockers — folds 4/4 (100%). Highest $EV exploit.
- Call the clock when he tanks 5+ min — pressures him toward the fold he's already leaning to.
- Fold one-pair to his flop check-raises — every shown was set+/nut draw (H12, H32, H50, H65, H66).
- 3bet his straddle opens light — defends very wide, plays fit-or-fold post when not connected.
- Don't bluff-catch his river jams — only jams river with nuts (H21 nut flush, H42 trips, H43 quads).
- Float his small flop cbets IP — gives up turn often when not improved (H7, H24, H49).
- Don't 4bet light — cold 4bets with real hands and you're crushed (H60, H61).
What we still don't know
True 3bet defense frequency. River bluff% — haven't caught one yet, possible he has zero. Behavior 4-handed deep where he opens 150bb btn — small sample suggests very wide.
Confidence map
HIGH × 6, MED × 9, LOW × 3. Overall MED-HIGH. The turn-fold-to-jam pattern is the strongest, most actionable read. More 3bet-pot data and more river-bet samples would upgrade the range work.
Remember · the one-line carry
BLUE-04 barrels turn big after flop x/c with strong-but-not-nut hands then folds 4/4 (100%) to a jam — H20 he barreled $10.4k on 993r then tank-folded 10min, H27 he potted $4975 turn then folded river to $13.6k. When he fires turn and you have any reasonable equity or fold equity → shove, and call the clock when he tanks 5+ minutes. Trap warning: his flop check-raises are always set+/nut draw (H12, H32, H50, H65, H66) — never bluff-catch those with one pair.